000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230253
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Aug 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 15N to 23N
between 105W and 115W continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an 1006 mb area of low pres located a couple of
hundred nm south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula near 20N109.5W. Fresh to gale force winds
continue in association with the low, mainly on the northeast
side, including near Cabo Corrientes, along with seas of 8 to 11
ft. Environmental conditions remain conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression has a high chance to form
tonight or on Mon while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 kt, 
away from the coast of Mexico. Additional information on this 
system can found in the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at 
www.hurricanes.gov/marine, and in the latest NHC Tropical Weather
outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 79W from near the Colombia-Ecuador 
border northward across eastern Panama and into the Caribbean 
Sea, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted.

A tropical wave is along 88W from 02N to across Honduras, moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted along the coast and inland over Costa Rica northward to 
Guatemala, and also from 04N to 10N between 88W and 98W.

A tropical wave is along 109W from 01N to 16N, moving W at 15 to
20 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below.

A tropical wave is along 123W from 01N to 19N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. No significant convection is noted.

A tropical wave that was along 140W has moved W of the area.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua near 11N86W to 15N103W,
then resumes from 15N112W to 12N130W to 12N140W. Aside from the
convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between
96W and 120W, and also from 07N to 12N between 129W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on area 
of low pressure near 20N109.5W where a gale warning is currently
in effect.

Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail in the Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are over the offshore waters of 
Baja California. Moderate to fresh SE winds being funneled along 
the coast and across the offshore waters of Guerrero and 
Michoacan are also noted. Seas across the offshore waters of 
Mexico outside of the area of the low pres are 4 to 7 ft, except
3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, another area of disturbed weather off the 
coast of southern Mexico may gradually develop as environmental 
conditions are forecast to be favorable, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by late this week offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico while the system move west- 
northwestward or northwestward at around 10 kt. Regardless of
development, fresh to strong E-SE winds, except N-NE in the
Tehuantepec region, will continue to funnel up along the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico along with 5 to 8 ft seas
through the week. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly flow will
prevail in the Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
offshore waters north of 05N, under the influence of moist 
monsoonal winds, and the passage of two tropical waves across the
region. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail offshore of
Nicaragua northward. Moderate S-SW winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell
dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail north of
the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon 
trough will freshen through mid-week, diminishing somewhat by the
end of the week. Long period SW swell will reach the Galapagos 
Islands region tonight, and then the coast of Central America Mon
night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on area 
of low pressure near 20N109.5W.

A surface trough extends from near the Channel Islands of
California to near 24N129W. Otherwise, broad surface ridging
dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds prevail north
of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly
winds south of the monsoon trough, locally to strong. Seas of 4
to 7 ft dominate the waters, locally to 8 ft near the strong
winds.

Trades north of the monsoon trough will gradually increase to
moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens. Otherwise,
little change in marine conditions is forecast through the week.

$$
Lewitsky