000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Numerous moderate to strong convection cover the area from 10N to 24N between 104W and 112W associated with the remnants of Grace, currently centered near 19N107.5W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds already occurring within 90 nm in the NE quadrant of the low. Aside from strong winds and low visibility, rough seas are expected in that region as well. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 kt, away from the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system within the next 2 days. Refer to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 15N with axis near 108W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is N of 09N between 94W and 110W. A tropical wave extends from 01N to 19N with axis near 122W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along 12N, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. A tropical wave extends from 01N to 18N with axis near 140W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N and W of 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N115W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection from 07N to 24N between 86W and 115W, and from 07N to 12N and W of 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the area NE of the low (remnants of Grace) currently centered near 19N107.5W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California to the entrance of the Gulf of California. Recent scatterometer data also show moderate to fresh SE winds across the offshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan. Seas in these areas remain between 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. Otherwise, a surface trough supports moderate to fresh S to SW winds in the northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Winds across the Baja California and SW Mexico offshore waters will continue increasing through the weekend as the remnants of Grace move westward across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Regardless of development, strong winds and building seas will affect the offshore waters of Colima, Nayarit, and Baja California Sur through Tue. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by mid-week. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development strong winds and building seas are expected Mon through Wed for the SW Mexico offshore waters. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse each day across the gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters N of 05N, under the influence of moist monsoonal winds, and the passage of a tropical wave that moves across Panama. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are noted N of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are across the Costa Rica, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters with seas between 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. Long period SW swell will reach the region of the Galapagos tonight and the Central America coast Mon night and winds across the region will increase to fresh with seas reaching the 8-9 ft. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish early next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging continues over the far NW forecast waters, centered on a 1027 mb high NW of the area. The pressure gradient supports moderate N to NE winds N of 15N and W of 125W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W with seas to 9 ft in SW swell. The remnants of Grace will continue moving westward across the eastern Pacific waters while strengthening. For further information, see the Special Features section above. $$ ERA