000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Grace continue to move westward over west- central Mexico tonight. Numerous heavy showers and tstms associated with it are across the offshore waters from Nayarit to just north of Acapulco with seas ranging from 5 to 10 ft along the coastal waters. Strong winds and low visibility is expected in that region as well. By Sun afternoon, the remnants of Grace are forecast to emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward away from the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation of this system within the next 5 days. Refer to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 105W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 15N between 97W and 108W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 118W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 112W and 122W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 134W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 132W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N100W to 13N120W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is N of 04N E of 97W, and from 07N to 13N between 122W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California, the entrace and southern half of the Gulf of California and Colima. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are along the coast from Michoacan to Oaxaca. Seas in these areas remain between 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. Otherwise, a surface trough supports moderate to fresh S to SW winds in the northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Winds across the Baja California and SW Mexico offshore waters will further increase early on Sun as the remnants of Grace starts to emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development by early next week while the system moves westward away from the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, strong winds and building seas will affect the offshore waters of Colima, Nayarit, and Baja California Sur from Sun through Tue. See the Special Features section for further details. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development strong winds and building seas are expected Mon through Wed for the SW Mexico offshore waters. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast for the area of Tehuantepec Mon through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters N of 04N, under the influence of moist monsoonal winds, and the passage of a tropical wave. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are noted N of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are across the Costa Rica, Panama, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters with seas between 6 to 8 ft in SW swell. Similar marine conditions will prevail through the middle of next week, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds forecast to pulse off the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging continues over the far NW forecast waters, centered on a 1030 mb high near 43N148W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave with axis near 134W support moderate N to NE winds N of 11N and W of 125W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in NE swell across the region N of 24N is forecast to subside early on Sun. Otherwise, moderate to fresh S to SW are south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W with seas to 8 ft in SW swell. The remnants of Grace will emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Sun with the potential to become a tropical cyclone early next week. For further information see the Special Features section. $$ Ramos