000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200817 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 96W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 07N between 90W and 100W. A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 110W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 106W and 120W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 19N with axis near 124W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 121W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N104W to 11N120W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is N of 03N E of 92W, and from 08N to 15N W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region continues to support light to gentle NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters with seas ranging between 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds is elsewhere from Tehuantepec to the central Gulf of California with seas to 6 ft, except for 3 ft in the gulf. A surface trough along the northern Gulf of California supports moderate S to SW winds with seas to 3 ft in that region. Similar conditions are forecast to remain in place through Sat. On Sat evening, winds across the Baja and SW Mexico offshore waters will increase to moderate to fresh ahead of the remnant low of current Tropical Storm Grace, which is forecast to be near 19.4N 102.2W Sun morning. The remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico later on Sun. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward away from the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, strong winds and building seas will affect the offshore waters of Colima, Nayarit, and Baja California Sur Sun through Tue. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward near or just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers prevail across the offshore waters N of 02N being influenced by the monsoon, the passage of tropical waves and Tropical Storm Grace, currently over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are noted N of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are across the Costa Rica, Panama, Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters with seas to 7 ft in long-period SW swell. Similar conditions will prevail through early next week, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds forecast to pulse off the Gulf of Papagayo at night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging continues over the NW forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Storm Linda, already over central Pacific waters, continue to support moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N and W of 130W. Even though Linda is W of the forecast waters, fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 10 ft remains in the region from 19N to 29N W of 137W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are observed S of the monsoon trough with seas to 8 ft. Conditions associated with Linda will completely move W of the area today. Northerly swell will continue to propagate across the north-central waters and subside Sat night. Seas will be in the 8-9 ft range in that region. Otherwise, the remnants of current Tropical Storm Grace are forecast to emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico on Sun. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward away from the coast of Mexico. $$ Ramos