000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Linda is quickly weakening and at 19/1500 UTC it was downgraded to a Tropical Storm. At this time, Linda is centered near 19.9N moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present within about 75 nm NE quadrant of center. Additional weakening is forecast, and Linda is expected to become a gale-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night. Linda is forecast to cross 140W tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 93W/94W and north of 04N, moving W around 10 kt. scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis N of 06N between 90W and 98W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 108W and north of 03N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N-20N between 103W-107W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 121W north of 03N, moving W around 10 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across western Panama to 12N95W to a 1010 mb low pressure at 16N103W to 12N115W to 14N127W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 01N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama, from 10N to 12N between 86W and 89W, and within about 75 nm on either side of the monsoon trough W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed off Baja California Norte, supporting southerly fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less later today. Elsewhere, surface ridging extending from a 1035 mb high near 44N143W south-southeastward to near Clarion Island is producing mainly gentle to moderate winds across the offshore forecast waters of Baja california. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in the offshore due primarily to SW swell, 4-6 ft in the northern Gulf of California, with slight seas over the remainder of the Gulf. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are within about 45 nm offshore from Michoacan to Jalisco. This convective activity is associated with a 1010 mb low pressure at 16N103W. For the forecast, the surface trough just west of Baja California will move northeastward. SW swell of 8 ft in the waters off S Mexico will gradually subside through Sun. Hurricane Grace, currently crossing the Yucatan peninsula will move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Grace will likely make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday, and dissipate over Mexico late Sat into Sun. However, the remnants are expected to continue westward into the E Pacific Ocean, and an area of low pressure could form by early next week off the coast of southwest Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Tranquil winds will persist over the Central American and Equatorial Offshore zones through at least Mon night. SW swell of up to 8 ft will affect the same waters through today, before gradually subsiding into Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on T.S. Linda. Elsewhere, surface ridging extending from a 1035 mb high near 44N143W south-southeastward to Clarion Island is promoting generally moderate or weaker winds north of the monsoon trough. SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough are moderate to fresh. Seas of 8-9 ft mainly due to SW swell are noted from 08N to 13N between 111W and 115W, and from 10N to 13N between 104W and 106W. For the forecast away from Linda, no significant changes to the winds over the open Pacific are expected for the next several days. Northerly swell will propagate across the north-central waters during the next 48 hour building seas to 8-9 ft. $$ GR