000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Linda is centered near 18.6N 122.0W at 16/0300 UTC moving WSW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the center of Linda. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane strength through Wednesday as it continues to move westward. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 79W north of 02N through eastern Panama, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident north of 02N and east of 79W. A tropical wave north of 02N along 93W into southern Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave. A tropical wave is along 108W north of 02N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 105W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... the monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 13N95W to 10N105W to 11N110W. The ITCZ extends from 14N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 13N between 95W and 98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Linda. A weak surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure well northwest of the area near 28N135W southeastward into central Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off Baja California Norte between the ridge and lower pressure over the southwest U.S. Light to gentle NW winds were noted off Baja California Sur in an earlier scatterometer satellite pass, but recent ship observations report fresh to even strong NW winds funneling along the coast south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell off Baja California. Light breezes and slight seas persist throughout the Gulf of California. Farther south, light to gentle SW winds are noted south of Cabo Corrientes, with 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. A few coastal thunderstorms are ongoing from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the coast of Guerrero. For the forecast, a surface trough will move into the waters off Baja California Norte tonight, and persist into mid week. This will allow a small area of westerly fresh to possibly strong gap winds over the far northern portion of the Gulf of California Tue through Wed night. Expect increased SW swell in the waters off southern Mexico by mid week, gradually subsiding through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent altimeter satellite pass indicated Seas near 8 ft just beyond 240 nm off Nicaragua and Costa Rica. This is indicative of a surge of fresh SW monsoon winds impacting mainly the waters off Costa Rica and western Panama beyond 180 nm, with reinforcing SW swell. Elsewhere farther south, moderate SW winds are noted with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle breezes are evident north of the monsoon trough from Nicaragua to Guatemala. A few showers and thunderstorms are moving off the coast of northwest Nicaragua into the Gulf of Fonseca. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh SW winds over the waters off Costa Rica and Panama will diminish through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead, expect increased SW swell across the region by mid week, gradually subsiding through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Linda. Hurricane Linda will impact the region from roughly 15N to 25N west of 120W through Thu as it continues to move westward. Gentle winds and moderate seas are evident north of this zone. Moderate SE winds and moderate SW swell are noted farther south. East of 110W, fresh SW monsoon flow is evident, with seas reaching 7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will follow a trough moving into the waters off Baja California by mid week. Long period NW swell will also follow this trough, reaching as far south as 27N after Wed. South of the monsoon trough and east of 110W, fresh to strong SW flow with reinforcing SW swell will allow seas to build to 9 ft through mid week. $$ Christensen