000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Linda is centered near 19.3N 119.2W at 15/0900 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. While convection has diminished slightly over the past several hours, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 60 nm in the eastern quadrant of Linda, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. A turn toward the west-southwest is anticipated this evening followed by a turn back to the west on Monday. Linda will gradually weaken as it continues westward, becoming a tropical storm as it cross west of 130W late Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 88W and 91W. A tropical wave is along 104W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 102W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Segments of the monsoon trough axis extend from 07N78W to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N87W to 11N95W to 09N110W, and from 14N123W to 13N135W. The ITCZ continues from 13N135W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection described in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections, scattered moderate convection is evident north of 05N and east of 82W, and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Linda. S to SW swell generated from Hurricane Linda continues to impact the waters off Baja California this morning, although seas have been subsiding and are likely 5 to 7 ft. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 0430 UTC showed mainly moderate NW winds, although recent reports from the NOAA Ship Ronald H. Brown indicated winds to 20 kt off Punta Eugenia. The scatterometer pass also confirmed light breezes across most of the Gulf of California, although a cruise ship in La Paz reported at least moderate gap winds funneling across Baja California Sur. Farther south, strong gap winds are likely ongoing into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, ahead of an approaching tropical wave. Convergence of these gap winds with gentle SW winds is supporting a large cluster of strong thunderstorms off the coast of Chiapas and eastern Oaxaca. Seas are 4 to 6 ft off southern Mexico in SW swell, with seas slightly higher in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to the gap winds. For the forecast, southerly swell generated from Hurricane Linda will continue to impact the waters off Baja California through mid week. A trough will move into the waters off Baja California Norte by mid week. This will tighten the pressure gradient and allow fresh westerly gap winds to funnel into the northern portion of the Gulf of California late Tue into Wed. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish through today. Looking ahead, expect increased SW swell in the waters off southern Mexico by mid week. Swells generated by Linda are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of Baja California and southwest Mexico. Please consult products from your local weather office. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are noted in the Papagayo region, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in long period mixed swell. Mainly gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through early next week. South of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate, occasionally fresh, S to SW winds will prevail through the middle of next week, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. New southerly swell will impact the waters offshore of Ecuador Sun night into early next week, reaching the near shore waters of Central America by Mon evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Linda. Hurricane Linda will impact the region from roughly 15N to 22N west of 120W through Thu as it continues to move westward. Gentle winds and moderate seas are evident north of this zone. Moderate SE winds and moderate SW swell are noted farther south. East of 110W, fresh SW monsoon flow is evident, with seas reaching 7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will follow a trough moving into the waters off Baja California by mid week. Long period NW swell will also follow this trough, reaching as far south as 27N after Wed. South of the monsoon trough and east of 110W, fresh to strong SW flow with reinforcing SW swell will allow seas to build to 9 ft through mid week. $$ Christensen