000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Linda is centered near 13.6N 106.5W at 12/0300 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near Linda are 21 ft. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the south and west quadrants, and 210 nm NE quadrant. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday, with that motion continuing through the weekend. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Linda is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 22.0N 118.2W at 12/0300 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Kevin is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday morning and then to a remnant low Thursday night or early Friday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W north of 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 84W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 08N85W to 10N97W, then resumes from 12N123W to 08N140W. Other than the convection associated with Kevin, Linda and the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 116W and 124W, and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Conditions across the Mexico offshore waters are being dominated by tropical storms Kevin and Linda. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details these storms. Otherwise, gentle winds are N of Punta Eugenia with seas to 6 ft forecast to increase to 8-9 ft tonight and Thu as Kevin continues to move NW out of the area. Seas west of Baja California will subside Thu afternoon as Kevin moves away. Seas will increase off Baja California Sur Fri night into Sat as Linda passes well offshore. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE winds will become light to gentle variable flow on Thu through Thu night. Gentle to moderate NW winds are forecast Sun through Mon offshore most of Mexico. For the forecast, Kevin will weaken to a tropical depression Thu morning near 23N120W, then weaken to a remnant low Fri morning near 25.5N 125W. Linda will strengthen to a hurricane Thu morning near 14N108W, then reach near 18N116W Sat morning with a forecast intensity of 85 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm Mon evening near 19N 125.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough will prevail through Mon, except for Fri when gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the waters N of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Linda and Tropical Storm Kevin. Weak surface ridging prevails over the NW forecast waters providing fair weather conditions W of 125W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail. For the forecast, Kevin will weaken to a tropical depression Thu morning near 23N120W, then weaken to a remnant low Fri morning near 25.5N 125W. Linda will strengthen to a hurricane Thu morning near 14N108W, then reach near 18N116W Sat morning with a forecast intensity of 85 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm Mon evening near 19N 125.5W. $$ Hagen