000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 19.1N 114.3W at 10/1500 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong from 14N to 19N between 113W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 25N between 105W and 123W. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 13.4N 101.5W at 10/1500 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 10 ft. Numerous moderate convection is from 08N to 16N between 99W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 17N between 92W and 108W. Strengthening is expected during the next several days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 13N98W. It resumes at 13N119W to 08N139W. Aside from the convection described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 02N and E of 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E. Gentle to moderate northwest winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and north of Cabo San Lazaro will change little through mid-week. South of Cabo San Lazaro to near 22N, weather and marine conditions will deteriorate through late Wed as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected over the Gulf of California today through tonight. These moderate to fresh SE winds will continue into Wed for the northern Gulf of California. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed into Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Wed night. Moderate SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Enhanced thunderstorm activity is expected near the monsoon trough, off Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica for the next few days as a tropical wave moves across the area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin and Tropical Depression Twelve-E. High pressure ridging extends over the waters west of 125W and north of 16N, where moderate northeast winds prevail. Wave heights of 4 to 5 ft prevail over these waters. Weather and marine conditions west of 120W will start to deteriorate by mid- week as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located a few hundred nm south of the coast of Acapulco, Mexico, is expected to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days as it moves W to WNW. $$ Ramos