000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 17.4N 112.9W at 2 AM PDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 360 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 14N to 19N between 106W and 111W. Kevin is forecast to maintain its current motion during the next few days. Kevin is forecast to also maintain its current intensity through Wed morning, then begin to weaken. It is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 22N 121W Thu morning. Kevin will become a remnant low as it moves to near 23N 123W Thu evening. Expect wave heights to build within the forecast area of Kevin. In addition, swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur through Tue. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For more details on Kevin, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kevin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 13.0N 100.8W at 2 AM PDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Scattered strong convection extends outward from the center 90 nm in the SE quadrant, 180 nm in the SW quadrant and 270 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 18N between 93W and 105W. The depression is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and to a hurricane on Thu near 15N108W. It will then move to near 18N113W by Fri night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 12N98W. It resumes at 13N119W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 77W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E. Gentle to moderate northwest winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and north of Cabo San Lazaro will change little through mid-week. South of Cabo San Lazaro to near 22N, weather and marine conditions will deteriorate through late Wed as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected over the Gulf of California today through tonight. These moderate to fresh SE winds will continue into Wed for the northern Gulf of California. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed into Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Wed night. Moderate SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Enhanced thunderstorm activity is expected near the monsoon trough, off Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica for the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin and Tropical Depression Twelve-E. High pressure ridging extends over the waters west of 125W and north of 16N, where moderate northeast winds prevail. Wave heights of 4 to 5 ft prevail over these waters. Weather and marine conditions west of 120W will start to deteriorate by mid- week as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located a few hundred nm south of the coast of Acapulco, Mexico, is expected to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days as it moves W to WNW. $$ Hagen