000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 17.4N 112.9W at 8 PM PDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with a low-level swirl clearly seen in the last daytime visible images. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 360 nm west and southwest of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 14N to 21N between 105W and 111W. Kevin is forecast to maintain its current motion during the next few days. Kevin is forecast to also maintain its current intensity through Wed morning, then begin to weaken. It is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 22N 121W Thu morning. Kevin will become a remnant low as it moves to near 23N 123W Thu evening. Expect wave heights to build within the forecast area of Kevin. In addition, swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur through Tue. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For more details on Kevin, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kevin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov. Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1008 mb near 13N100W is becoming better defined a few hundred nm south of Acapulco, Mexico. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the low already has 25 kt winds well to the north and northeast of its center. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are conducive for further development. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 96W and 104W. A tropical depression is likely to form by early Tuesday while the low moves west- northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 kt through midweek, parallel to and well offshore the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. It has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure is forecast to intensify into a gale center on Tue with wave heights building to 14 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details and to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The only tropical wave analyzed in the basin is the tropical wave associated with the low pressure described above, along 100W from 03N to the 1008 mb low at 13N100W to 17N. Convection is described above, associated with the low pressure. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to low pressure 1008 mb near 13N100W to 14N105W. It resumes at 13N118W to 08N130W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 77W and 80W, and from 08N to 13N between 91W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin and on a gale warning associated with a broad area of low pressure a few hundred nm south of Acapulco, Mexico. Gentle to moderate northwest winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and north of Cabo San Lazaro will change little through mid-week. South of Cabo San Lazaro to near 22N, gentle to moderate northwest winds will change little through late tonight, then weather and marine conditions over those waters will deteriorate through late Wed as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds in the northern Gulf of California will continue through Mon, then develop over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California Tue as Kevin approaches from the SE. These winds shift northward to the northern Gulf of California Wed as Kevin pulls away from southern Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Tue afternoon, then become mainly fresh winds through late in the week. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough are expected to diminish to moderate winds tonight. Expect unsettled weather to continue over most of the offshore waters through at least Wed. Otherwise, long-period southwest swell will reach the Central America offshore waters Tue night and continue through next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. High pressure ridging extends over the waters west of 125W and north of 16N, where gentle to moderate northeast winds prevail. Wave heights of 4-5 ft prevail over these waters. Weather and marine conditions west of 120W will start to deteriorate by mid- week as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, a gale warning has been issued for a low pressure center associated to a broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred nm south of the coast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 2 days. $$ Hagen