488 AXPZ20 KNHC 092205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 17.0N 112.2W 1001 mb at 2 PM PDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Latest satellite imagery continues to reveal that Kevin remains a sheared system, with a low-level swirl clearly seen in the visible imagery. Numerous strong convection is within 270 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 240 nm from the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 14N to 22N between 104W-110W. Kevin is forecast to maintain its current motion during the next few days. Kevin is forecast to also maintain its current intensity through late Tue night, then begin to weaken. It is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression depression near 22.0N 121.9W Thu afternoon. Kevin will become a remnant low as it moves to near 23.6N 126.6W Fri afternoon. Expect wave heights to build within the forecast area of Kevin. In addition, swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur through Tue. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For more details on Kevin, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kevin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov. Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1010 mb near 12N99W is along a tropical wave that has its axis along 99W from 03N to 16N. These system is within a broad area low pressure that is located a few hundred nm south of Acapulco, Mexico. The low pressure is forecast to intensify into a gale center on Tue. It continues to produce disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 08N-16N between 95W-102W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. It has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details and to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The earlier tropical wave that was along 128W from 03N to 22N is no longer identifiable. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N92W to low pressure near 12N99W 1010 mb and to 11N104W, where it briefly pauses. It resumes at 13N117W to 09N131W. ITCZ extends from 10N131W to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 90W-95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm south of the trough between 129W- 131W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 131W-139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin and on a gale warning associated with a broad area of low pressure a few hundred nm south of Acapulco, Mexico. Gentle to moderate northwest winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and north of Cabo San Lazaro will change little through mid-week. South of Cabo San Lazaro to near 22N, gentle to moderate northwest winds will change little through late tonight, then weather and marine conditions over those waters will deteriorate through late Wed as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds in the northern Gulf of California will continue through Mon, then develop over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California Tue as Kevin approaches from the SE. These winds shift northward to the northern Gulf of California Wed as Kevin pulls away from southern Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through Tue afternoon, then become mainly fresh winds through late in the week. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough are expected to diminish to moderate winds tonight. Otherwise, long-period southwest swell will reach the Central America offshore waters Tue night and continue through next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. High pressure ridging extends over the waters west of 125W and north of 16N, where gentle to moderate northeast winds prevail. Wave heights of 4- 5 ft prevail over these waters. Weather and marine conditions west of 120W will start to deteriorate by mid- week as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, a gale warning has been issued for a low pressure center associated to a broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred nm south of the coast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 2 days. $$ Aguirre