000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 16.0N 110.3W at 09/0300 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery depicts Kevin as a sheared system, with numerous strong convection confined to its western semicircle, extending outward 180 nm from the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N-19N between 105W-116W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue into Wed. Kevin is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane early Tue near 18N 114W. Expect wave heights to build within the forecast area of Kevin. In addition, swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For more details on Kevin, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kevin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred nm south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized scattered moderate convection from 06N-16N between 91W-100W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next two or three days. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 kt during the next several days, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N128W to 15N128W to 24N125W. It is moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 11N95W to 13N105W where it briefly ends. It resumes west of Tropical Storm Kevin near 14N117W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection described above, scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 13N between 81W and 89W, from 08N to 13N between 101W and 105W, and from 04N to 08N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin and on a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles offshore the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala. Gentle to moderate northwest winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and north of Cabo San Lazaro will change little through mid-week. South of Cabo San Lazaro to near 22N, gentle to moderate northwest winds will change little through late Mon night, then weather and marine conditions over those waters will deteriorate through late Wed as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds in the northern Gulf of California will continue through Mon, then develop over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California Tue as Kevin approaches from the SE. These winds shift northward to the northern Gulf of California Wed as Kevin pulls away from southern Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles offshore the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala. Moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through late Tue, then become mainly fresh winds through late in the week. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough are expected to diminish to moderate winds by late Mon. Otherwise, long-period southwest swell will reach the Central America offshore waters Tue night and continue through next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. High pressure ridging extends from 30N136W southeastward to near 24N124W. High pressure covers the area north of 18N and west of 124W, where gentle north to northeast winds prevail. Wave heights of 5 ft or less prevail over these waters. Weather and marine conditions west of 120W will start to deteriorate by mid-week as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two to three days. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. $$ Hagen