000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 15.8N 109.7W at 08/2100 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery depicts Kevin as a partially sheared system, with its center partially exposed on the east side of its associated convection. This convection consists of numerous moderate to strong type intensity within 150 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 17N to 20N between 109W-114W, and within 90 nm either side of a line from 13N101W to 16N104W to 19N109W. Similar convection is SE through SW of Kevin from 10N to 14N between 105W-117W. A recent ASCAT pass revealed a swath of strong east-southeast winds within 120 nm of the coast Mexico of southern Mexico roughly between Acapulco and Manzanillo. In addition, ship with call ID "OYGH2" recently reported southeast winds of 20 kt near 19N106W. Kevin is forecast to maintain its current motion through this afternoon. A turn toward the west- northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue into Wed. Kevin is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near late Mon night near 17.3N 113.5W, with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts to 80 kt. Expect wave heights to build within the forecast area of Kevin. In addition, swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For more details on Kevin, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kevin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala roughly from about 08N-16N between 90W-101W. A tropical wave along 95W from 02N to 17N is contributing to this unsettled weather. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle portions of the week. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N127W to 15N127W to 24N124W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm west of the wave from 07N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1011 mb low near northwestern Colombia to 09N84W to 10N94W and northwestward to 13N101W, where it briefly ends. It resumes west of Tropical Storm Kevin near 14N117W to 09N127W and to 07N138W. Aside from the convection associated with Kevin and the broad area of low pressure and the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 79W-90W, and within 30 nm south of the trough between 117W-125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. Gentle to moderate northwest winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and north of Cabo San Lazaro will change little through mid-week. South of Cabo San Lazaro to near 22N, gentle to moderate northwest winds will change little through late Mon night, then weather and marine conditions over those waters will deteriorate through late Wed as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds in the northern Gulf of California will continue through Mon, then develop over the central and southern sections of the gulf Tue as Kevin approaches from the SE. These winds shift northward to the northern Gulf of California Wed as Kevin pulls away from southern Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles offshore the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala. Moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through late Tue, then become mainly fresh winds through late in the week. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough are expected to diminish to moderate winds by late Mon. Otherwise, long-period southwest swell will reach the Central America offshore waters Tue night and continue through next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. High pressure ridging extends from 30N136W southeastward to near 24N124W. High pressure covers the area north of 18N and west of 124W. Latest ASCAT data passes show gentle north to northeast winds over this part of the area. Recent altimeter data indicated wave heights of 5 ft or less over these waters. Weather and marine conditions west of 120W will start to deteriorate by mid-week as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle portions of the week. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. $$ Aguirre