000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081608 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021 Corrected last paragraph under Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 15.8N 109.0W at 08/1500 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows large burst of deep convection of numerous moderate to isolated strong intensity within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 14N99W to 17N104W to 19N109W. Kevin is forecast to maintain its current motion through today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected early Mon, and that general motion should continue into Wed. Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane near 16.9N 112.5W on Mon evening, with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts to 80 kt. Expected wave heights to build within the forecast area of Kevin. In addition, swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For more details on Kevin, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kevin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov. A broad area of low pressure is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador or from 07N-14N between 92W-96W. A tropical wave along 94W from 03N to 17N is contributing to this unsettled weather. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle portions of the week. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending from 04N127W to 15N126W to 23N124W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to 09N84W to 12N99W, where it pauses. It resumes west of Tropical Storm Kevin near 14N117W to 08N128W and to beyond the area at 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Kevin and the broad area of low pressure and tropical wave described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 80W-84W, also within 60 nm south of the trough between 135W-137W, between 137W-140W and within 30 nm of the trough between 118W- 121W. tween 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. Gentle to moderate northwest winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and N of Cabo San Lazaro will prevail through Tue morning. Afterwards, weather and marine conditions will deteriorate as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds in the northern Gulf of California will prevail through Mon and then resume along the entire gulf Tue as Kevin approaches from the SE. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles offshore the coasts of southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through the middle of the week being enhanced by the passage of a tropical wave. These conditions will expand to the Guatemala offshore waters as the waves moves west-northwest tonight and Mon. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough will diminish to moderate Mon night while the aforementioned wave moves away from the region. Otherwise, long-period southwest swell will reach the Central America offshore waters Tue night and continue through next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. A surface ridge prevails over the NW forecast waters extending to 125W and N of 16N. Latest scatterometer data depicts N to NE moderate winds in this region with seas to 5 ft. Conditions W of 120W will start to deteriorate by mid week as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower activity a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle portions of the week. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. $$ Aguirre