000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 15.8N 106.8W at 07/2100 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas remain 9 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N to 19N between 105W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N to 19N between 100W and 114W. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 16N with axis near 82W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02N E of 84W. A tropical wave extends from 01N to 14N with axis near 91W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 86W and 95W. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 124W, moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 14N101W then resumes W of T.S. Kevin near 14N115W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 07N132W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Kevin and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between 94W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Kevin near 15.8N 106.8W 1005 mb at 2 PM PDT moving W at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Kevin will move to 15.8N 108.1W Sun morning, 15.7N 109.4W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 110.5W Mon morning, 16.2N 111.5W Mon afternoon, 17.3N 112.7W Tue morning, and 18.2N 114.0W Tue afternoon. Kevin will change little in intensity as it moves near 19.9N 117.6W Wed afternoon. Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. Scattered showers and tstms are in the region of Tehuantepec ahead of a tropical wave that moves across the Guatemala offshore waters. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves WNW parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Winds and building seas associated with this system will start to affect the Tehuantepec offshore waters early on Mon. Gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja Peninsula coast and N of Cabo San Lazaro will prevail through Tue morning. Afterwards, conditions will deteoriote as Kevin approaches from the SE. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds in the northern Gulf of California will prevail through Mon and then resume along the entire gulf Tue as Kevin approaches from the SE. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds will continue in the Papagayo region through the middle of next week being enhanced by the passage of a tropical wave today through Monday evening. These conditions will expand to the Guatemala offshore waters as the waves moves WNW tonight and Monday. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough will diminish through mainly moderate Mon night while the aforementioned wave moves away from the region. Otherwise, long period SW swell will reach the Central America offshore waters Tue night and continue through early next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. A weak surface ridge continue over the NW forecast waters extending to 120W and N of 14N. Latest scatterometer data show N to NE moderate winds in this region with seas to 5 ft. Conditions W of 120W will start to deteriorate Tue evening as Kevin starts to move out of the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves WNW parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This system has a high chance of cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. $$ Ramos