000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kevin is centered near 15.8N 106.8W at 07/2100 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas remain 9 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N to 19N between 105W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N to 19N between 100W and 114W. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 16N with axis near 82W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02N E of 84W. A tropical wave extends from 01N to 14N with axis near 91W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 86W and 95W. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 124W, moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 14N101W then resumes W of T.S. Kevin near 14N115W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 07N132W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Kevin and the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between 94W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Kevin near 15.8N 106.8W 1005 mb at 2 PM PDT moving W at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Kevin will move to 15.8N 108.1W Sun morning, 15.7N 109.4W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 110.5W Mon morning, 16.2N 111.5W Mon afternoon, 17.3N 112.7W Tue morning, and 18.2N 114.0W Tue afternoon. Kevin will change little in intensity as it moves near 19.9N 117.6W Wed afternoon. Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kevin. Scattered showers and tstms are in the region of Tehuantepec ahead of a tropical wave that moves across the Guatemala offshore waters. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves WNW parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. To the north of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with some locally moderate winds near the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in long period mixed swell. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds are likely over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours through the weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the weekend, with another set early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Eleven-E. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a medium chance of cylcogenesis within the next 5 days. $$ Ramos