000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 15.9N 105.5W at 07/1500 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 9 ft based on altimeter data. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 18N between 104W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 19N between 100W and 111W. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight, and could become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 90W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 85W and 93W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 18N with axis near 123W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 14N100W then resumes near 14N111W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection N of 10N between 91W and 100W, N of 03N E of 81W and from 05N to 08N between 122W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave/low pres system developing a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. A weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California offshores with seas to 4 ft. These conditions are forecast to prevail through Sun when moderate NW winds are forecast to develop along the coastal waters while NE moderate winds are forecast near the Revillagigedo Islands as a low approaches from the SE. The tail of a surface trough extending from a low located near the border between Arizona and California continues to support moderate to fresh SE winds in the northern portion of the Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. To the north of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with some locally moderate winds near the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in long period mixed swell. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds are likely over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours through the weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the weekend, with another set early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of fresh winds and seas ranging between 8 and 9 ft prevails west of 138W through Sat morning. Moderate easterly with seas to 8 ft prevail in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends along 134W from 21N and 25N. Surface high pressure NW of the area extends a ridge SE across the remainder of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail mainly N of 20N and W of 123W. Seas in this region fluctuate between 5 to 7 ft. $$ Ramos