000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 15N with axis near 82W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02N E of 89W. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 103W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 10N between 98W and 108W. A tropical wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 118W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 115W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N102W to 13N115W to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to 08N134W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is N of 08N between 90W and 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are offshore Baja California with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Low pressure over the SW CONUS extends a surface trough to the northern Gulf of California and continue to support moderate to fresh SE winds with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere except over the Guerrero offshore waters where locally moderate E to SE winds are observed along with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. In Tehuantepec region, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are observed N of 15N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will continue over the northern half of the Gulf of California through Sat night, then moderate winds will prevail through Mon. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred nautical miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves west- northwestward parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Associated conditions may impact the Revillagigedo Islands early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with some locally moderate winds near the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in long period mixed swell. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds are likely over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours through the weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the weekend, with another set early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Tropical Depression Jimena is centered near 17.6N 140.0W at 06/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft. Convection has reduced to scattered showers within 30 nm south semicircle of the low center. Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. Latest scatterometer data indicate that the remnant low of Hilda has opened into a trough with fresh to locally strong winds from 22N to 24N between 133W and 135W. Seas in the vicinity of the trough are 7 to 8 ft. Surface high pressure NW of the area extends a ridge SE to just N of both Jimena and the remnants of Hilda. The pressure gradient between the ridge and both areas of low pressure supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds mainly N of 26N and W of 120W. Seas in this region fluctuate between 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles S of the coast of SW Mexico has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week while the system moves WNW parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. $$ Ramos