000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052051 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jimena is centered near 16.4N 137.6W at 05/2100 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently to 13 ft. Jimena will weaken to a tropical depression Fri afternoon, become a remnant low Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun afternoon. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the northeast semicircle and within 45 nm in the southwest quadrant of Jimena. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Hilda is centered near 21.5N 131.2W at 05/2100 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently to 10 ft. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted between 45 nm and 120 nm in the northwest quadrant. Hilda will become a remnant low Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 03N northward to across Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. See the section below for details on nearby convection. A tropical wave is along 100W, from 03N northward into Guerrero, Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 94W and 107W. A tropical wave is noted along 115W, from 04N to 19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 112W and 116W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 08N77W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N101W to 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to 07N134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm south-southwest of the monsoon trough between 77W and 112W, and within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 119W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm southeast of a line from 13N136W to 11N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring in the northern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, locally to 6 ft, in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Baja California Norte. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW wind will pulse to strong through the end of the week in the northern Gulf of California. A moderate northerly swell will impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte through the end of the week. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred nautical miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by Sun. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Associated conditions may impact the Revillagigedo Islands early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with some locally moderate winds near the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in long period mixed swell. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds are likely over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours tonight through the weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the weekend, with another set early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Hilda and Tropical Storm Jimena. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of the systems. Mainly moderate to fresh N-NE trades are noted under the ridge and north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate flow, locally fresh, south of the convergence zone. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the systems. For the forecast, winds and seas over some sections of the area, mainly N of 14N and W of 127W, will be impacted by the tropical systems detailed in the Special Features during the next several days, with conditions gradually improving by the end of the week into the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky