000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051459 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Hilda is centered near 21.0N 130.2W at 05/1500 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Hilda is almost completely void of convection with only isolated moderate convection noted within 120 nm in the northwest quadrant. Hilda will become a remnant low Fri morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Jimena is centered near 16.1N 137.2W at 05/1500 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the northeast quadrant, 120 nm in the southeast quadrant, and 60 nm in the west semicircle of Jimena. Jimena will weaken to a tropical depression Fri evening, become a remnant low Sat evening, and dissipate early Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 80W from 02N northward to across Panama, moving W at around 10 kt. See the section below for details on nearby convection. A tropical wave is along 99W, from 01N northward into Guerrero, Mexico, moving slowly W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 20N between 95W and 107W. A tropical wave is noted along 114W, from 04N to 19N, crawling slowly W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 111W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 10N79W to 1012 mb low pressure near 12N100W to 10N117W. The ITCZ extends from 10N117W to 06N128W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm south-southwest of the monsoon trough between 78W and 95W, within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 115W and 128W, and from 08N to 12N between 137W and 140W. Similar convection is noted from 22N to 26N between 107W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring in the northern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh in the central Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, locally to 5 ft, in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Baja California Norte. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW wind will pulse to strong nightly through the end of the week in the northern Gulf of California. A moderate northerly swell will impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte through the end of the week. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred nautical miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by Sun. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail, with some locally moderate winds near the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range in long period mixed swell. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds are likely over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours tonight through the weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Hilda and Tropical Storm Jimena. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of the systems. Mainly moderate to fresh N-NE trades are noted under the ridge and north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the systems. For the forecast, winds and seas over some sections of the area, mainly N of 12N and W of 125W, will be impacted by the tropical systems detailed in the Special Features during the next several days, with conditions gradually improving by the end of the week into the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky