000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 19.4N 128.0W at 04/2100 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently to 15 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is sheared off and within 210 nm in the south quadrant of Hilda. Hilda will weaken to a tropical depression Thu morning, become a remnant low Fri morning, and dissipate Sat afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 14.9N 135.7W at 04/2100 UTC moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the northeast semicircle and within 360 nm of the southwest semicircle. Peak seas are currently 12 ft. Nine-E will strengthen to a tropical storm Thu morning, weaken back to a tropical depression Fri afternoon, and become a remnant low Sat afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 96W, from 06N northward to just west of the Tehuantepec region, moving W at around 10 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are noted from 05N to 17N between 94W and 105W. A tropical wave is noted along 111W/112W, from 06N northward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, crawling slowly W at around 5 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted from 08N to 15N between 105W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 05N79W to 10N96W to 1013 mb low pressure near 10N101W. The monsoon trough continues from 10N101W to 08N122W. The ITCZ is located west of 140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 90W, and from 07N to 10N between 113W and 122W. Similar convection is noted from 20N to 25N between 105W and 111W, including over the southern Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio have mostly dissipated near 19N114W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring in the central Gulf of California, with fresh to strong in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, locally to 5 ft, in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell, except 6 to 8 ft offshore of Baja California Norte. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds, occasionally fresh to strong, will surge in the Gulf of California during the overnight hours over the next several days as convection over mainland Mexico propagates offshore. A moderate northerly swell will impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte through the end of the week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, parallel to and offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh near the Papagayo region, prevail. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range in long period mixed swell. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds may occur over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours tonight into the upcoming weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda and recently revived Tropical Depression Nine-E. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of the systems. Moderate to fresh N-NE trades, locally strong, are noted under the ridge and north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate, locally fresh, southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the systems. For the forecast, winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical systems detailed in the Special Features during the next several days, with conditions gradually improving by the end of the week into the start of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky