000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041514 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 19.1N 127.4W at 04/1500 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently to 18 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the south quadrant of Hilda. Hilda will weaken to a tropical depression this evening, become a remnant low Thu evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located more than 1600 nautical miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, near 14N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the southeast semicircle and within 150 nm in the north quadrant of the low. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt but are forecast to reach 35 kt later today regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Thus a gale warning has been issued beginning later today. Current seas are 8 to 12 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for tropical development over the next day or so, a high chance of tropical cyclone formation, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. By late Thursday, further development is not expected as the system is forecast to move over cooler waters. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 95W, from 06N northward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving W at around 10 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are noted within 330 nm south-southwest of the coast of Mexico between 92W and 103W. A tropical wave is noted along 111W, from 06N northward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, moving slowly W at around 5 to 10 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are noted from 10N to 13N between 106W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09N83W to 10N102W to 07N121W. The ITCZ is located west of 140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 87W, within 180 nm south-southwest of the monsoon trough between 94W and 104W, from 07N to 10N between 110W and 121W, and from 10N to 12N west of 137W. Similar convection is noted from 21N to 25N between 106W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio have mostly dissipated earlier this morning just north of Clarion Island. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring in the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds, occasionally fresh to strong, will surge in the Gulf of California during the overnight hours over the next several days as convection over mainland Mexico propagates offshore. A moderate northerly swell will impact the waters offshore of Baja California Norte by the end of the week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred nautical miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week, with some gradual development this weekend while the system remains offshore and moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, parallel to and offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh near the Papagayo region, prevail. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range in long period mixed swell. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds may occur over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours tonight into the upcoming weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E where a Gale Warning is now in effect. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of the systems. Moderate to fresh N-NE trades are noted under the ridge and north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate, locally fresh, southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the systems. For the forecast, winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical systems detailed in the Special Features during the next several days, with conditions gradually improving by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky