000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Aug 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 18.9N 126.6W at 04/0900 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Maximum seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 123W and 131W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. A 1007 mb low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located more than 1600 miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, near 14N135W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 130W and 140W. Associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas to around 11 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form today while the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Regardless of development, winds may reach near gale force. By late Thu, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development by that time is not expected. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 94W, from 05N northward to the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 90W and 99W. A tropical wave is noted along 110W, from 06N to near the Revillagigedo Islands, moving slowly W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 103W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N77W to 09N102W to 09N118W. The ITCZ extends from 13N135W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W and 88W, including across the Gulf of Panama region. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 115W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio are dissipating this morning just north of Clarion Island. Winds are diminishing from fresh and seas are decaying from 6 to 8 ft. No precipitation is associated with these remnants. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring offshore Baja California Norte, with generally gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas average 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds, occasionally fresh to strong, will surge in the Gulf of California during the overnight hours over the next several days as convection over mainland Mexico propagates offshore. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week, with gradual development this weekend while the system remains offshore and moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, surges of locally fresh winds may occur over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours tonight into the upcoming weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of the systems. Moderate to fresh N-NE trades are noted under the ridge and north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the systems. For the forecast, winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical systems detailed in the Special Features during the next several days, with conditions gradually improving by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ KONARIK