000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032038 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 17.8N 125.0W at 03/2100 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Maximum seas are currently to 23 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center, and also from 12N to 15N between 123W and 131W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Ignacio is centered near 20.4N 115.7W at 03/2100 UTC moving E at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Maximum seas are currently to 10 ft. No deep convection is noted with Ignacio. Ignacio will become a remnant low Wed morning, and dissipate Thu morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A 1007 mb low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, near 13.5N133.5W. Although the associated shower activity is currently limited, it continues to show some signs of organization. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 to 90 nm of the center. Associated winds are currently 20 to 30 kt, with seas 8 to 11 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Wed while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. At the very least, winds will be near gale force. By late Thu, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development by that time is not expected. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 91W, from 06N northward to Guatemala, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 90W and 99W, including across the Tehuantepec region. A tropical wave is noted along 104W, from 07N to southwestern Mexico, moving slowly W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 102W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N76W to 10N102W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N110W to 09N116W, then resumes from 15N127W to 1007 mb low pressure near 13.5N133.5W to 12N136W. The ITCZ extends from 12N136W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 84W, including across the Gulf of Panama region. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 110W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Ignacio, located west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern prevails between mainland Mexico and Tropical Depression Ignacio. Winds are mainly moderate or less, except moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California Norte. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft outside of Ignacio in a mix of long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, Ignacio will become a remnant low and move to 20.4N 115.3W Wed morning, 19.9N 114.5W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week, with gradual development thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds, occasionally fresh to strong, may surge in the Gulf of California during the overnight hours as convection over mainland Mexico propagates offshore. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, a surge of locally fresh winds may occur over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours tonight into the upcoming weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda, Tropical Depression Ignacio, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of the systems. Moderate to fresh N-NE trades are noted under the ridge and north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the systems. For the forecast, winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical systems detailed in the Special Features during the next several days, with conditions gradually improving by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky