000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031446 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 17.5N 124.5W at 03/1500 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maximum seas are currently to 25 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is displaced and within 240 nm in the southwest semicircle of Hilda. Hilda will weaken to a tropical depression Thu evening, and become a remnant low Fri morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Ignacio is centered near 20.5N 116.7W at 03/1500 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Maximum seas are currently to 10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is displaced and within 150 nm in the southwest quadrant of Ignacio. Ignacio will become a remnant low this evening, and dissipate Wed evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 nautical miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 14N133W. The associated shower activity is showing signs of organization, with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted within 60 nm mainly in the southeast quadrant of the low. Associated winds are currently 20 to 30 kt, with seas 8 to 11 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Wed while the system moves WNW to NW at 5 to 10 kt. By late Thu, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development by that time is not expected. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 90W, from 05N northward to western El Salvador and eastern Guatemala, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 90W and 98W, including across the Tehuantepec region. A tropical wave is noted along 103W/104W, from 07N to southern Mexico, moving slowly W at around 5 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 08N76W to 10N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N110W to 07N114W, then resumes from 15N128W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N133W to 11N136W. The ITCZ extends from 11N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm south-southwest of the coast of Central America between 77W to 90W, and from 06N to 11N between 100W and 117W. Similar convection is noted from 19N to 25N between 105W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 to 120 nm southeast of the monsoon trough between 133W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Ignacio, located WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern prevails between mainland Mexico and Tropical Depression Ignacio. Winds are mainly moderate or less, except moderate to fresh offshore of Baja California Norte, and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft outside of Ignacio in a mix of long period northerly and southerly swell. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Ignacio will become a remnant low and move to 20.9N 116.8W this evening, 20.9N 116.6W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred nautical miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week, with gradual development possible thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves WNW roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds, fresh to strong Wed night through Sat, may surge in the Gulf of California during the overnight hours as convection over mainland Mexico propagates offshore. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate south-southwest winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. To the north, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, a surge of fresh to locally strong winds may occur over the offshore waters north of Costa Rica during the overnight hours tonight into the upcoming weekend as convection over Central America propagates offshore. Otherwise, fairly tranquil winds should prevail through the forecast period. A moderate southerly swell may propagate across the waters west of Ecuador during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda, Tropical Depression Ignacio, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of the systems. Moderate to fresh N-NE trades are noted under the ridge and north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the systems. For the forecast, winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days, with conditions gradually improving by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky