000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030859 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Warning: Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 17.0N 123.9W at 03/0900 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 26 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 121W and 126W. Hilda is expected to continue in this general motion through Wed followed by a turn to the west Thu. Hilda should weaken during the next several days, and may become a tropical depression before the end of the week. Seas will gradually begin to subside, but peak seas will remain over 20 ft into tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Ignacio is centered near 20.1N 116.2W at 03/0900 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 11 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted mainly SW of the center, from 16N to 20N between 115W and 119W. A decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Weakening is forecast, and Ignacio should become a remnant low by Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. Low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E, near 13N132W, continues to show signs of organization. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from from 09N to 16W between 129W and 135W. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for continued development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression is likely to form today while the system moves WNW or NW at around 5 kt. Thu, the system is forecast to move over cooler water and further development is not expected by that time. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 103W, extending from 06N to Michoacan, Mexico, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 95W to 109W. A tropical wave is noted along 89W, from 04N into El Salvador, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 85W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N110W. The monsoon trough then reforms at 13N126W and continues to 09N134W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on newly downgraded Tropical Depression Ignacio, located about 435 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high near 37N147W southeastward to 18N124W. There are moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California del Norte while gentle winds prevail over Baja California Sur. For the remainder of the area, winds are gentle or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, newly downgraded Tropical Depression Ignacio is near 20.1N 116.3W 1007 mb at 2 AM PDT moving NW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Ignacio will move to 20.9N 116.9W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 21.2N 116.6W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. An area of low pressure is likely to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves WNW, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough. To the north, gentle wind prevails. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, quiescent winds should prevail through late in the week, with winds moderate or less and seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered convection will continue in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Hilda, Tropical Depression Ignacio, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb high near 36N147W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate with some areas of locally fresh winds. South of the monsoon trough S winds are also generally moderate. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ KONARIK