000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Hilda is centered near 16.4N 123.3W at 03/0300 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 121W and 126W. Hilda is expected to continue in this general motion through Wed followed by a turn to the west Thursday. Hilda should weaken during the next several days, becoming a tropical storm Tue. Seas will gradually begin to subside, but peak seas will remain over 20 ft through Tue night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Storm Ignacio is centered near 19.6N 115.7W at 03/0300 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft, and similar seas should continue through tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 115W and 119W. A decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Weakening is forecast, and Ignacio should become a tropical depression Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. Low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E, near 13N132W, continues to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from from 09N to 16W between 129W and 134W. Along the low level circulation is currently elongated, environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for continued development early this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves WNW or NW at around 5 kt. Thu, the system is forecast to move over cooler water and further development is not expected. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 101W, extending from 06N to near Acapulco, Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 94W to 104W. A tropical wave is noted along 87W, from 04N into Nicaragua, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 85W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N103W. The monsoon trough then reforms at 13N126W and continues to 09N134W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection has developed within 60 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Ignacio, located about 435 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high near 37N147W southeastward to 18N124W. There are moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California del Norte while gentle winds prevail over Baja California Sur. For the remainder of the area, winds are gentle or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, tropical Storm Ignacio near 19.6N 115.7W 1005 mb at 8 PM PDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Ignacio will weaken to a tropical depression near 20.3N 116.6W Tue morning, move to 21.1N 117.4W Tue evening, become a remnant low and move to 21.6N 117.5W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. An area of low pressure may develop several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week, and environmental conditions are favorable for some gradual development thereafter as it moves WNW at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough. To the north, gentle wind prevails aside from a pulse of moderate offshore winds occurring in the Papagayo region. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, quiescent winds should prevail through late in the week, with winds moderate or less and seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Hilda, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Ignacio, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb high near 36N147W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate, except locally fresh winds are occurring to the north and west of the tropical cyclones. South of the monsoon trough S winds are also generally moderate. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ KONARIK