000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Hilda is centered near 15.9N 122.8W at 02/2100 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 29 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 121W and 125W. Hilda is expected to continue in this general motion through Wed followed by a turn to the west Thursday. Hilda should gradually weaken during the next several days. Peak seas of 25 to 29 will prevail today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Storm Ignacio is centered near 18.8N 114.9W as of 02/2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft, and similar seas should continue through tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 115W and 118W. A WNW track is forecast to continue for the next several days. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight, and Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located near 10N130W. Although disorganized, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 129W to 133W. The shower activity has been increasing and showing some signs of organization over the past several hours, and environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for a tropical depression to reform during the next day or so while the low moves WNW or NW at around 5 kt. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 98W, extending from 06N into Guerrero, Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 92W to 102W. A tropical wave is noted in the far eastern Pacific along 84W, from 04N into Costa Rica and Nicaragua, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection remains from 05N N to the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W to 08N108W. The monsoon trough is reforming from 13N126W to 09N134W, then the ITCZ goes beyond 08N140W. Convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated with features described in the Special Feature and Tropical Wave sections above, except scattered moderate convection from 05N to 12N between 102W to 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 420 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high near 37N147W southeastward to 17N124W. There are moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California del Norte while gentle winds prevail over Baja California Sur. For the remainder of the area, winds are gentle or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ignacio near 18.8N 114.9W 1004 mb at 2 PM PDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Ignacio will weaken to a tropical depression near 19.5N 116.0W Tue morning, move to 20.4N 117.2W Tue afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 21.2N 118.1W Wed morning, 21.2N 118.9W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds developing west of Baja California del Norte as high pressure builds toward the region and gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Mexican border. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, Fresh NE to E gap winds will continue today over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail through late week, with winds moderate or less and seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Hilda, and Tropical Depression Ten-E, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb high near 36N147W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate, except closer to the tropical cyclones, where some fresh winds are occurring. South of the monsoon trough S winds are also generally moderate. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ Torres