000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021613 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Hilda is centered near 15.4N 122.6W at 02/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 29 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 120W and 124W. Hilda is expected to continue in this general motion through Wed Followed by a turn to the west Thursday. Weakening is expected and Hilda is likely to become a tropical storm by Tue. Peak seas of 25 to 29 will prevail today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Ten-E strengthen to Tropical Storm Ignacio as of 02/1500 UTC. Ignacio is centered near 18.3N 114.0W moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft, and similar seas should continue through tonight. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 113W and 117W. A WNW track is forecast for the next several days. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located near 13N130W. Although disorganized, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 127W to 132W. Aside from its proximity to Hurricane Hilda, somewhat favorable environmental conditions could allow this system to redevelop into a tropical depression early this week as it moves WNW or NW at around 5 kt. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 96W, extending from 05N into Guerrero, Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 92W to 102W. A tropical wave is noted in the far eastern Pacific along 84W, from 04N into Costa Rica, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection remains from 06N to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N93W to 09N108W. The monsoon trough is reforming from 13N128W to 08N134W. Convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated with features described in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections above, except scattered moderate convection from 07N to 14N between 102W to 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 420 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high near 37N147W southeastward to 18N124W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh. There are moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California del Norte. For the remainder of the area, winds are gentle or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, tropical Depression Ten-E is now Tropical Storm Ignacio located near 18.3N 114.0W 1005 mb at 8 AM PDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Ignacio will move to 19.0N 115.3W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.8N 116.7W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.3N 117.6W Tue evening, 20.7N 118.5W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther to the south will support fresh pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, Fresh NE to E gap winds will continue today over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail through late week, with winds moderate or less and seas of 5 to 7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Hilda, and Tropical Depression Ten-E, and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1032 mb high near 37N147W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate, except closer to the tropical cyclones, where some fresh winds are occurring. South of the monsoon trough S winds are also generally moderate. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ Torres