000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020334 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Hilda is centered near 15.1N 121.6W at 02/0300 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 119W and 125W. A turn toward the northwest is expected Monday, before Hilda is forecast to recurve back to the west after midweek. Weakening is expected to continue and Hilda is likely to become a tropical storm by Tue. Peak seas of 25 to 30 will prevail through Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 17.6N 112.9W at 02/0300 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas of up to 13 ft have developed, and similar seas should continue into Tue. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 112W and 115W. A WNW track is forecast to continue for the next several days. Strengthening is forecast into Mon, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm. Weakening could begin Tue morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located near 12N129W. Scattered, disorganized, moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 126W to 134W. Aside from its proximity to Hurricane Hilda, somewhat favorable environmental conditions could allow this system to redevelop into a tropical depression early this week as it moves WNW or NW at around 5 kt. There is a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 96W, extending from 05N into Oaxaca, Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 90W to 102W. A tropical wave is noted in the far eastern Pacific along 82W, from 05N into Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Weak low pressure previously associated with this wave has dissipated. However, numerous moderate to strong convection remains from 06N to the coast of Panama E of 84W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N80W to 08N92W to 14N112W. The monsoon trough then redevelops at 13N125W to 10N130W. The ITCZ has formed from 10N135W to 10N140W. Convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated with features described in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections above, except scattered moderate convection from 06N to 12N between 102W to 105W, and from 07N to 11N between 85W to 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on newly formed Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 420 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near 37N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh to strong. For the remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Ten-E has developed near 17.6N 112.9W 1006 mb at 8 PM PDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Ten-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 18.3N 114.4W Mon morning, move to 19.2N 116.2W Mon evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 20.0N 117.5W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.4N 118.3W Tue evening, 20.7N 119.0W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther to the south will support fresh to locally strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will continue tonight over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail into late week. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters before relaxing on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Hilda, and Tropical Depression Ten-E, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high near 37N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two tropical cyclones with fresh winds. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ KONARIK