000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Newly upgraded Hurricane Hilda is centered near 14.3N 118.7W at 01/0300 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 115W and 122W. Some slowing of forward speed is possible over the next couple of days. Continued strengthening is expected and Hilda is forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane Sun night. Strength should level off starting Mon. Peak seas of 25 to 28 ft will prevail through Sun night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 11.5N 127.5W at 01/0300 UTC moving N at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 13N between 124W and 131W. Nine-E is not anticipated to strengthen for at least the next 48 hours, but it could become a tropical storm by Mon night. Seas may exceed 12 ft Tue if the depression strengthens. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure located about 400 nm SW of the coast Southern Mexico, near 15N109W, is continuing to organize tonight. A broad area of numerous strong to scattered moderate convection is located from 07N to 19N between 99W and 110W, moving WNW at around 10 kt. Further gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two before environmental conditions become less conductive for development. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 90W, extending from 05N N into El Salvador, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is located inland over Central America. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N76W to the 1008 mb low pressure near 15N109, described in the Special Features Section above. The ITCZ has developed from 10N135W to 10N140W. Aside from convection described in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 92W and 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on developing low pressure well south of southern Mexico that has a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high near 38N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther to the south will support fresh to perhaps locally strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun. Low pressure well offshore southern Mexico is likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. This could bring higher wind and seas to far offshore waters between Guerrero and the southern tip of Baja California into nearly next week OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region this evening with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will pulse through Sun over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail into late next week. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters before relaxing on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on newly- upgraded Hurricane Hilda and Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high near 38N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two tropical cyclones with fresh winds. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ KONARIK