000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 14.1N 117.9W at 31/2100 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 23 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 115W and 121W. A general decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday. Seas should reach around 28 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 11.6N 128.4W at 31/2100 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 13N between 124W and 131W. Little if any intensification is expected today. However, some slight strengthening is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a couple of days. Seas should reach around 10 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1010 mb low pressure located about 350 nm southwest of the coast of Southern Mexico continues to gradually organize this in association with a tropical wave that is moving WNW around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 19N between 99W and 109W. Conditions appear conductive for continued development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week as it moves away from the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on the tropical wave several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico that has a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. A tropical wave over the far E Pacific along 87W extends from 05N northward across Costa Rica and into the western Caribbean, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N76W and continues west across Costa Rica near 09N85W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N107W to 14N109W. Aside from convection described in the Special Features section above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the vicinity of the monsoon trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on developing low pressure well south of southern Mexico that has a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high near 38N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south will support fresh to locally strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun, mainly during night and early morning hours. Tropical Storm Hilda will remain well south and west of the region, and move farther away through the weekend. Low pressure forming well offshore southern Mexico today has a potential for tropical development west of the area into early next week, and could bringing higher winds and seas to far offshore waters off southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region early this morning with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will pulse at night and early morning hours tonight through Sun over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail into late next week. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters this weekend before relaxing on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda and Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high near 38N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two tropical cyclones with fresh winds. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ Torres