000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311608 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 13.7N 116.7W at 31/1500 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 114W and 120W. A general decrease in forward speed is predicted through the weekend. Additional steady and rapid strengthening is forecast through the weekend, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane later today. Seas should reach around 24 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 12.1N 127.6W at 31/1500 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 123W and 130W. Little change in motion is expected this weekend. Gradual strengthening is likely through early next week and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in a couple of days. Seas should reach around 13 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1010 mb low pressure located about 350 nm south-southwest of the coast of Southern Mexico continues to gradually organize this morning in association with a tropical wave that is moving WNW around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 19N between 99W and 109W. Conditions appear conductive for continued development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week as it moves away from the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on the tropical wave several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico that has a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. A tropical wave over the far E Pacific along 86W extends from 05N northward across Costa Rica and into the western Caribbean, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W and continues west across Costa Rica near 10N85W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 12N105W to 13N109W. After a break, it continues from 11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from convection described in the Special Features section above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the vicinity of the monsoon trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on developing low pressure well south of southern Mexico that has a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb high near 38N148W southeastward to 20N117W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south will support fresh to locally strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun, mainly during night and early morning hours. Tropical Storm Hilda will remain well south and west of the region, and move farther away through the weekend. Low pressure forming well offshore southern Mexico today has a potential for tropical development west of the area into early next week, and could bringing higher winds and seas to far offshore waters off southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region early this morning with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will pulse at night and early morning hours tonight through Sun over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail into late next week. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters this weekend before relaxing on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda and Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb high near 38N147W southeastward to 20N123W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two tropical cyclones with fresh winds. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ Torres