000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 13.2N 114.6W at 31/0300 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 110W and 119W. A general decrease in forward speed is predicted over the weekend. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night. Seas should reach around 22 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 12.5N 126.2W at 31/0300 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N to 15N between 120W and 130W. An increase in forward speed is expected by Saturday evening. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm Saturday night. Seas should reach around 15 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A tropical wave with axis along 104W extends from 05N northward into Michoacan, Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure of 1009 mb in association with this wave is located near 12N104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 16N between 98W to 107W. This activity is becoming better organized and continued gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form early next week. There is a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on the tropical wave several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico that has a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. A tropical wave over the far E Pacific along 84W extends from 06N northward across Panama and Costa Rica and into the western Caribbean, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 04N and E of 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 06N77W to 13N107W. After a break, it continues from 12N123W to 12N135W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 11N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave well south of southern Mexico that has a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb high near 38N148W southeastward to 22N112W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south will support fresh to locally strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun, mainly during night and early morning hours. Tropical Storm Hilda will remain well south and west of the region, and move farther away through the weekend. Low pressure could form in association with a tropical wave well offshore southern Mexico this weekend or early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region this evening with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will pulse at night and early morning hours tonight into Sun over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail into late next week. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters Sat and Sun before relaxing on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda and Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb high near 38W148W southeastward to 22N112W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two tropical cyclones. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ KONARIK