000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Tropical Storm Hilda is centered near 12.1N 113.6W at 30/2100 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 09N-16N between 110W-118W. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a general decrease in forward speed is predicted over the weekend. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Seas should reach around 22 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical Depression Nine-E is centered near 12.3N 125.8W at 30/2100 UTC moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-15N between 120W-128W. The depression is temporarily drifting toward the west-southwest near 5 kt. A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected by Saturday evening. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. Seas should reach around 15 ft by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the far E Pacific along 82W extends from 06N northward into the W Caribbean, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 05N between 83W-88W. A tropical wave with axis along 100W extends from 05N northward into Oaxaca, Mexico. It is moving west at around 10 kt. Low pressure of 1010 is located at 10N103W in association with this wave, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-16N between 98W-107W. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 06N77W to 13N107W. After a break, it continues from 12N113W to 12N130W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N-11N west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb high near 38N148W southeastward to 22N112W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south will support fresh to strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun, mainly during night and early morning hours. Winds will increase some and seas will build near Clarion Island Sat as Tropical Storm Hilda moves westward to the south of the island. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions should prevail through at least Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region this morning with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will pulse at night and early morning hours tonight into Sun over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail through at least Wed night. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters Sat and Sun before relaxing on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Hilda and Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb high near 38W148W southeastward to 22N112W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two tropical cyclones. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days. $$ Landsea