000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Storm Warning: Low pressure of 1006 mb near 12N112W continues to produce numerous moderate to scattered strong convection within 180 NM of center in the S semicircle and 120 NM in the N semicircle. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. A storm warning is in effect in association with this low pressure, as winds of 50 kt or higher are likely by Sun morning. Peak seas are currently near 10 ft and expected to reach at least 15 ft by Sun morning. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in associated with another low pressure of 1007 mb near 13N126W, and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection now extend within 180 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Fresh to strong winds and seas of up to 8 ft are also occurring. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 kt. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Seas are expected to reach at least 10 ft by Sun morning. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the far E Pacific along 81W extends from 05N northward into the SW Caribbean, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection exists from 04N- 09N east of 85W. A tropical wave with axis along 99W extends from 05N northward into Oaxaca, Mexico. It is moving west at around 10 kt. Low pressure of 1008 mb appears has formed at 11N99W in association with this wave, and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-16N between 98W-105W. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 5 days. A tropical wave with an axis along 113W from 04N-16N is moving west at around 10 kt. Convection near this wave is primarily associated with the low pressure near 12N112W that is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 10N91W, then resumes from a 1006 mb low at 12N112W to a 1007 mb low at 13N126W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N-11N west of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from a 1025 mb high near 39W150W southeastward to 20N110W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh to strong. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther south will support fresh to strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun, mainly during night and early morning hours. Winds will increase some and seas will build near Clarion Island Sat as a developing low pressure moves westward, possibly as a tropical depression or tropical storm to the south of the island. Elsewhere tranquil conditions should prevail through at least Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region this morning with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse at night and early morning hours tonight into Sun over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail through at least Tue night. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters Sat and Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on two low pressure systems that have potential for tropical cyclone formation. Aside from the two Special Features low pressure systems, surface ridging extends from a 1025 mb high near 39W150W southeastward to 20N110W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two lows. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the Special Features low pressure systems during the next several days. $$ Landsea