000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300814 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1006 mb near 12N109W continues to produce numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm of center in the S semicircle. The low is gradually becoming better organized, and although it is producing some strong winds, it currently lacks a well defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive to further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by Saturday while the system moves WNW at around 10 kt. A gale warning is in effect in association with this low pressure, as winds of 35 kt or higher are likely by late today. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in associated with another low pressure, of 1007 mb, near 14N125W, and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection now extend within 180 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Fresh to strong winds and seas of up to 8 ft are also occurring. Upper level winds are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression expected to form this weekend while the system moves W around 5 kt. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific along 81W extends from 05N northward into the SW Caribbean, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection exists from 01N to 09N E of 87W. A tropical wave with axis along 98W extends from 05N northward into Oaxaca, Mexico. It is moving W to WNW at around 10 kt. Low pressure of around 1010 mb appears to be forming around 10N98W in association with this wave...and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring from 09N to 15N between 94W and 101W. This area of disturbed weather is expected to gradually develop over the next several days, and the system could become a tropical depression early next week. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 5 days. A tropical wave with an axis along 113W from 03N to 15N is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Convection near this wave is primarily associated with the low pressure near 12N109W that is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 08N77W, across portions of Panama and Costa Rica, to 12N104W. It then reforms near 12N115W, continues to a 1007 mb low pressure near 14N125W, to another newly formed 1010 mb low pressure near 09N136W, then to 10N140W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above, scattered moderate convection has formed from 06N to 12N between 128W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning will mainly be fresh through the day. Light to gentle winds variable winds are generally expected elsewhere, with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Low pressure may form several hundred miles SSW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend, and this may bring some higher winds and seas to areas well offshore southern Mexico, before the features moves farther west of the area by early next week. Farther north, a relatively weak pressure gradient supports moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area and lower pressure farther south will support pulses of gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off western Oaxaca through Sun, mainly at night and in the early morning hours. Winds will increase slightly and seas will build near Clarion Island Sat as an area of developing low pressure moves westward, possibly as a tropical depression or storm, well to the south of the island. Mostly moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, seas will build off southern Mexico starting late Sat due to increased southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore gap winds in the Papagayo region early this morning will prevail into tonight. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will remain south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along with a southwest swell that will build seas to 5-7 ft. Seas of 3-6 ft due to a southwest swell will change little over Gulf of Papagayo region during the next few days. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse mainly at night and in the early morning tonight into Sun in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along with southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on two low pressure systems that have potential for tropical cyclone formation. Aside from the two Special Features low pressure systems, relatively weak high pressure is present with the associated gradient allowing for generally moderate northeast trades to persist north of the monsoon trough and moderate south to southwest winds farther south, with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell in most areas. Larger southerly swell is noted south of the equator. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the Special Features low pressure systems during the next several days. $$ KONARIK