000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300306 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better organized in association with a 1006 mb low pressure near 12N109W. Environmental conditions are conducive for continued development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves WNW at 10 around 10 kt. A gale warning is in effect in association with this low pressure, as winds of 35 kt or higher are likely by late Fri. Currently, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the SE semicircle of the low. Fresh to strong wind converging into the low is likely causing seas of 8 to 9 ft near and to the east of the center. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Another 1011 mb low pressure farther west is centered near 14N125W. This sheared system has numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Fresh to strong winds and seas of up to 8 ft are also occurring. Upper level winds are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves W at 5 to 10 kt. There is a moderate chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 5 days. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific along 80W extends north into the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection has developed in and near the Gulf of Panama in association with this wave. A tropical wave with axis along 97W extends north into the far SW Gulf of Mexico, moving W to WNW at around 10 kt. An area of disturbed weather associated with this wave includes numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N to 13N between 93W and 98W. Gradual development of these feature is possible over the next several days, and there is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. A tropical wave with an axis along 112W from 03N to 15N is moving W at around 10 kt. Convection near this wave is primarily associated with the low pressure near 1N109W that is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 08N77W, across northern Panama, to 12N105W. It then reforms in the vicinity of a 1006 mb low pressure near 12N109W and continues to a 1007 mb low pressure near 14N125W and farther west to 11N140W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 83W and 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will pulse to strong later tonight as the gradient between high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough to the south increases diurnally. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas mainly to 3 to 5 ft due to a south to southwest swell. Farther north, a relatively weak pressure gradient supports moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area and lower pressure farther south will support pulses of gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off western Oaxaca through Sun, mainly at night and in the early morning hours. Winds will increase slightly and seas will build near Clarion Island Sat as an area of developing low pressure moves westward, possibly as a tropical depression or storm, well to the south of the island. Mostly moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, seas will build off southern Mexico starting late Sat due to increased southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A pulse of fresh offshore winds have developed in the Papagayo region this evening. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will remain south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along with a southwest swell that will build seas to 5-7 ft. Seas of 3-6 ft due to a southwest swell will change little over Gulf of Papagayo region during the next few days. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse mainly at night and in the early morning tonight into Sun in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along with southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on two low pressure systems that have potential for tropical cyclone formation. Aside from the two Special Features low pressure systems, relatively weak high pressure is present with the associated gradient allowing for generally moderate northeast trades to persist north of the monsoon trough and moderate south to southwest winds farther south, with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell in most areas. Larger southerly swell is noted south of the equator. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the Special Features low pressure systems during the next several days. $$ KONARIK