000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern axis of a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea extends along 80W to across Panama to near 06N, which it is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 03N E of 83W to inland northwest Colombia. A tropical wave has its axis extending from the Gulf of Honduras along 87W south to near 04N and it is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are in the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 15N with axis near 102W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 97W and 105W. A tropical wave extends from 03N to a 1008 mb low near 12N117W to 18N, and moves westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 112W and 120W. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 15N with axis near 129W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 125W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N110W to 12N117W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A relatively weak pressure gradient supports gentle to locally moderate NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 4 ft range in SW swell. With return flow in the Gulf of Mexico, the gap event in Tehuantepec has ceased and gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevails with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas mainly to 3 ft. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated tstms are over the Guerrero and Oaxaca offshore waters associated with the passage of a tropical wave. For the forecast, a tighter pressure gradient will develop along the Gulf of California beginning Wed evening allowing for moderate to locally fresh NW winds to develop over the Baja California offshore waters through Sat. Moderate SE winds will also develop along the Gulf of California Thu night through Fri night. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan peninsula for the next several nights and will induce moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the Tehuantepec region with seas to 6 ft. These winds will be enhanced Thu night into Fri as low pressure develops south of this region with the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while moving in a WNW direction. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will dominate S of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along with SW swell that will build seas to 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will dominate the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters through Sat night, with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. The weather over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Colombia will be unsettled over the next few days due to the passage of a tropical wave. Low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles offshore of the southern coast of Mexico in a few days with the potential of some gradual development this weekend while the system moves WNW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Several tropical waves are across the region enhancing shower activity along the monsoon trough and ITCZ area. Aside from the rain and tstms, these waves are supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to approximately 20N and W of 113W with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. N of 20N and W of 128W, a weak surface ridge supports gentle to moderate N to NE winds with seas to 5 ft. For further information about the waves, see section above. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to develop later this week several hundred miles offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward. There is a medium chance of develoment within the next 5 days. $$ Ramos