000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 79W to across Panama and to near 05N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02N E of 83W to inland northwest Colombia. A tropical wave has its axis extending from the Gulf of Honduras along 87W south to near 04N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 06N to 13N between 85W and 92W. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 15N with axis near 101W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N between 93W and 104W. A tropical wave extends from 03N to a 1008 mb low near 13N116W to 18N116W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N between 111W and 120W. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 128W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 120W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N100W to 13N116W to 10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N W of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A relatively weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle NW winds over the Baja California, Colima and Guerrero offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in SW swell. Gentle light and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, with seas to 3 ft. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are E to SE at gentle to moderate speeds with 5-7 ft seas in SW swell. Deep atmospheric moisture in the wake of a recent tropical wave passing across the offshore waters of southeastern Mexico is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore waters. For the forecast, a tighter pressure gradient will develop along the Gulf of California beginning Wed afternoon allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds to develop over the Baja California offshore waters through Fri night, and for moderate to locally fresh southeast winds over the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds will continue to pulse throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and will be enhanced Thu night into Fri as low pressure develops south of this region with the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while moving in a WNW direction. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along with SW swell that will build seas to 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will dominate the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters through Sat night, with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. The weather over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Colombia will be unsettled over the next few days due to the passage of a tropical wave. Low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles S or SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days with the potential of some gradual development late this week or weekend while the system moves WNW. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An area of fresh north winds is over the northern waters north of 24N and between 127W-136W. Seas there are in the 5-7 ft range. These winds are forecast to gradually shift westward through the rest of the week as weak low pressure forms near 28N125W. The low pressure will weaken to a trough late Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are expected through late week, except south of about 18N, where the low pressure that is on the tropical wave along 116W as discussed above will move westward, with some possible gradual development. Expect some increase of winds and seas over the waters south of 18N and west of 120W. $$ Ramos