000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W and extends south into the far eastern part of the area to near 06N. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 03N between 79W and 90W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 16N with axis near 98W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 10N between 90W and 103W. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 16N with axis near 115W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N between 110W and 120W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N with axis near 125W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N W of 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N98W to 13N114W to 10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N126W to 09N135W to 12N137W. For convection information, see the tropical waves section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle NW winds over the Baja California, Colima and Guerrero offshore waters with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in SW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are observed in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. Latest scatterometer data continue to show moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft. In addition, the passage of a tropical wave supports scattered moderate convection over the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore waters. Moderate NW winds will develop along the Baja California coast tonight and continue through the middle of the week. A tighter pressure gradient will develop along the Gulf of California on Wed evening, which will suport moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds will also develop in the southern half of the Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will be enhanced Thu night as a low pressure develops south of this region. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this low thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves WNW remaining several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds continue over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are present south of the monsoon trough, west of Panama and Colombia, with seas 8 ft due to a long-period SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily due to the long-period SW swell. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh through mid-week across the Gulf of Papagayo. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador today. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through today. By mid- week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this week while the system moves in a generally west-northwestward direction. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N140W. Fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from the monsoon trough north to 26N and west of 129W, except elsewhere from 11N to 18N W of 135W where higher seas of 7-9 ft are found due to a SE swell component. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are mostly in the 4-6 ft range, except for slightly higher seas reaching 7 ft south of the ITCZ between 128W and 136W. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the ITCZ through about mid-week. $$ Ramos