000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 13N140W. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive for additional development to occur. However, any increase in the organization of the shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression on Monday. The low is forecast to move into the Central Pacific basin by late Monday morning, and by Tuesday conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. This system has a medium chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of a western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W and extends south into the far eastern part of the area to near 05N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 84W and 90W. A tropical wave has its axis 97W from 03N to the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. It is moving westward at about 13 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is N of 11N between 93W and 101W. A tropical wave has its axis along 115W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low is associated with this wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 17N between 110W and 117W. A tropical wave has its axis along 124W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 13N W of 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N97W to 12N114W to 09N124W. The ITCZ continues from 09N124W to 12N140W. For convection information, see the tropical waves section above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds prevail west of Baja California with moderate winds on the southern tip of Baja along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Mainly gentle winds are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail off the west coast of Baja California through Tue. Expect winds to increase fresh to strong by Wed and continue through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the Gulf of California for the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. By mid- week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this week while the system moves in a generally west-northwestward direction. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds continue over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are present south of the monsoon trough, west of Panama and Colombia, with seas 8 ft due to a long-period SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily due to the long-period SW swell. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh through mid-week across the Gulf of Papagayo. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador today. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through today. By mid- week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this week while the system moves in a generally west-northwestward direction. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N140W. Fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from the monsoon trough north to 26N and west of 129W, except elsewhere from 11N to 18N W of 135W where higher seas of 7-9 ft are found due to a SE swell component. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are mostly in the 4-6 ft range, except for slightly higher seas reaching 7 ft south of the ITCZ between 128W and 136W. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the ITCZ through about mid-week. $$ Ramos