000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 13N139W continues to show some signs of organization. Latest satellite imagery shows that this system lacks deep convection. The only convection noted is of the scattered moderate type intensity within 30 nm of a line from 14N137W to 14N139W and from 14N to 15N west of 139W. This remaining convection is disorganized. Environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive for additional development of this system to occur. However, any increase in the organization of the convective activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression today. The low is forecast to move into the Central Pacific basin by late this morning, and by Tue conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. This system has a medium chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of a western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W and extends south into the far eastern part of the area to near 05N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis 95W from 03N to the Gulf of Tehuantepec region near 16N95W. It is moving westward at about 13 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 14N to 16N. A tropical wave has its axis along 115W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted from 09N to 15N between 111W-115W. A tropical wave has its axis along 124W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm either side of the wave from 11N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 14N98W. It continues at 14N109W to low pressure near 13N113W 1011 mb and to 10N122W. The ITCZ extends from 11N125W to 15N136W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 83W-89W, within 180 north of the trough between 94W-97W and within 120 nm north of the trough between 87W-90W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 09N to 13N between 97W-103W, and also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds prevail west of Baja California with moderate winds on the southern tip of Baja along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Mainly gentle winds are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail off the west coast of Baja California through Tue. Expect winds to increase fresh to strong by Wed and continue through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the Gulf of California for the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. By mid- week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this week while the system moves in a generally west- northwestward direction. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are present south of the monsoon trough, west of Panama and Colombia, with seas 8 ft due to a long- period SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted,with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily due to the long-period SW swell. The earlier observed scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama have diminished both in the intensity and in coverage during the overnight hours. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh through mid-week across the Gulf of Papagayo. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador today. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through today. By mid- week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this week while the system moves in a generally west-northwestward direction. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1011 mb low pressure near 13N138W. Fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from the monsoon trough north to 26N and west of 129W, except elsewhere from 11N to 18N W of 135W where higher seas of 7-9 ft are found due to a SE swell component. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are mostly in the 4-6 ft range, except for slightly higher seas reaching 7 ft south of the ITCZ between 128W and 136W. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the ITCZ through about mid-week. $$ Aguirre