000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260955 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021 Corrected Tropical Waves section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1011 is centered near 13N138W continues to show some signs of organization. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm W semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm NE quadrant of the low, and also within 30 nm of a line from 15N131W to 16N135W. A scatterometer pass from Sun afternoon revealed fresh to strong winds on the north side of the low. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-11 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for some additional development during the next day or so, and only a slight increase in the organization of the system would result in the development of a tropical depression. The low is forecast to move into the Central Pacific basin on Mon morning, and on Tue conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. This system has a high chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected A tropical wave has its axis 94W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at about 16 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen west of the wave from 09N to 13N between 95W and 98W. A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted from 13N to 14N between 112W-114W. A tropical wave has its axis along 123W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm either side of the wave from 11N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 14N98W. It continues at 14N109W to low pressure near 13N112W and to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 14N136W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the trough between 95W-97W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 05N to 09N between 80W-86W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 119W-124W and also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W-127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds prevail west of Baja California with moderate winds on the southern tip of Baja along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Scatterometer data from Sun afternoon showed gentle to moderate winds over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail off the west coast of Baja California through Tue. Expect winds to increase fresh to strong by Wed and continue through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the Gulf of California for the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. By mid- week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this week while the system moves in a generally west- northwestward direction. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are present south of the monsoon trough, west of Panama and Colombia, with seas 8 ft due to a long- period SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted,with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily due to the long-period SW swell. The earlier observed scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama have diminished both in the intensity and in coverage during the past few hours. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through tonight and will pulse moderate to locally fresh through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through Mon. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Mon. By mid-week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this week while the system moves in a generally west-northwestward direction. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1011 mb low pressure near 13N138W. Fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from the monsoon trough north to 26N and west of 129W, except elsewhere from 11N to 18N W of 135W where higher seas of 7-9 ft are found due to a SE swell component. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are mostly in the 4-6 ft range, except for slightly higher seas reaching 7 ft south of the ITCZ between 128W and 136W. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the ITCZ through about mid-week. $$ Aguirre