000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252129 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N137W continues to show some signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 135W to 138W. A scatterometer pass this afternoon depicted fresh to strong winds on the north side of the low. Environmental conditions remain conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 kt. By Tuesday night, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development of this system. This system has a high chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W north of 03N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 91W to 95W. A tropical wave is along 113W from 03N to 17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 109W to 115W. A tropical wave is along 122W from 03N to 14N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 121W to 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 14N96W. The monsoon trough begins again near 14N109W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N112W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 14N134W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N and E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 104W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds prevail west of Baja California with moderate winds on the southern tip of Baja along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Scatterometer data from this afternoon showed gentle to moderate winds over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail off the west coast of Baja California through Tue. Expect winds to increase fresh to strong by Wed and continue through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the Gulf of California for the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, west of Panama and Colombia, with seas 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through tonight and will pulse moderate to locally fresh through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through Mon. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N137W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon trough to 26N and west of 129W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the convergence zone through midweek. $$ AReinhart