000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N135W continues to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 131W to 137W. Overnight scatterometer pass depicted a large area of 20 to 25 kt winds on the north side of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. By Tuesday, cooler waters and unfavorable upper-level winds will likely limit any further development of this system. This system has a high chance of development within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W north of 03N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 90W to 93W. A tropical wave is along 10N112W from 03N to 17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 109W to 114W. A tropical wave is along 121W from 04N to 14N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 119W to 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama/Costa Rica near 08N83W to 13N96W. The monsoon trough begins again near 14N107W to a 1012 low pressure near 13N112W to 13N132W. The ITCZ extends from 12N138W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate to isolated convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 86W and from 06N to 15N between 95W to 104W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 10N to 13N between 135W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 8 ft. Gentle winds with 6 to 7 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds prevail west of Baja California, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. An earlier ASCAT pass showed moderate to fresh SE winds over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will end later this morning. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse throughout the week. Winds across the northern Gulf of California will dimish after this morning and become gentle for the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. Fresh to locally strong NW winds will develop Wed into Thu along the west coast of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, west of Panama and Colombia, with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through tonight, becoming gentle to moderate through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through tonight. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through Mon. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N135W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon trough to 24N and west of 130W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the convergence zone through midweek. $$ AReinhart