000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250855 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N133W continues to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 133W and 139W. A recent ASCAT pass depicts a large area of 20 to 25 kt winds on the north side of the low. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours while it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt. Strong winds are expected to continue north of the center with seas up to 10 ft expected within 120 nm north of this low pressure area over the next couple of days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W north of 06N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 111W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 106W and 115W. A tropical wave is along 121W from 04N to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted near the wave axis from 07N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N96W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N110W to 11N118W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N133W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection listed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 77W and 86W, and from 06N to 14N between 93W and 103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 8 ft. Gentle winds with 6 to 7 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds prevail west of Baja California, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. An earlier ASCAT pass showed moderate to fresh SE winds over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue through early this morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in this region this week. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds in the northern Gulf of California will dimish this afternoon and become gentle through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop Wed into Thu to the west of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, well to the west of Panama and Colombia, with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through Mon night, becoming gentle to moderate through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through tonight. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through Mon. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N133W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon trough to 24N between 129W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the convergence zone. $$ Hagen