000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250346 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N132W continues to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 131W and 140W. Earlier scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds on the north side of the low and showed that the system lacked a well-defined low-level circulation. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours while it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue with seas up to 11 ft likely within 120 nm north of this low pressure area over the next couple of days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W from 06N to Costa Rica, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 83W and 87W. A tropical wave is along 110W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 107W and 112W. A tropical wave is along 120W from 05N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 120W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N92W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N108W to 10N117W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N132W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection listed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 77W and 82W, and from 05N to 13N between 90W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 8 ft. Gentle winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and slight seas are noted over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue through early Sun morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in this region through the middle of next week. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the northern Gulf of California will dimish Sun and become gentle through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop Wed into Thu to the west of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to locally strong NE winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, well offshore of Panama and Colombia, with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate and isolated strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through Mon night, becoming gentle to moderate through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and western Panama to persist through Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through Mon. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N132W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon trough to 24N between 127W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the convergence zone. $$ Hagen