000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N130W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the north and west side of the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 130W and 135W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds on the north side of the low. The convective activity has become a bit better organized, but the system currently lacks a well- defined low- level circulation. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system could become a tropical depression later this weekend or early next week before reaching cooler waters while moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue with seas up to 11 ft likely within 120 nm north of this low pressure area over the next few days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 109W from 03N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 107W and 111W. A tropical wave is along 119W from 07N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 117W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 09N82W to 08N95W to a 1012 mb low near 12N107W to a 1009 mb low near 13N130W to 11N137W. Aside from the convection listed in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section, numerous strong convection is from 02N to 11N E of 85W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 89W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 14N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area is supporting fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 8 ft. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh S winds and slight seas are noted over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue through Sun in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse in this region through the middle of next week. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of California will dimish overnight and become gentle through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, offshore of Panama and Colombia, with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows clusters of strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Mon, becoming gentle to moderate through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia, western Panama and Costa Rica to persist through Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through the rest of the weekend. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N128W. Fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon trough to 24N between 124W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the convergence zone. $$ AReinhart